Impact of Immigration on Demography, Human Capital and Segregation in Sweden, Norway, Denmark and Finland from 2026 to 2100

Kyösti Tarvainen

Published: 2025/09/01

Abstract

Immigration into Nordic countries significantly impacts their population composition, which in this study includes the following cultural subpopulations: the native population, the Western foreign-origin population, the Muslim population and the non-Western, non-Muslim foreign-origin population. If current immigration and birth rate trends continue, the native populations of Sweden, Norway, Denmark and Finland are projected to become minorities within this century. Differences in culture and human capital among these subpopulations have led to segregation in residential areas, schools, employment and marriages in these countries, which were once among the most homogeneous and egalitarian societies. Human capital is measured by the Human Capital Index (HCI). Because HCI correlates strongly with intelligence quotient (IQ), we focus on IQ, as there is considerably more data available on IQ than on HCI. Cultural differences among subpopulations served as the initial cause of residential segregation. This segregation has been reinforced by IQ gaps of 10-20 points between natives and certain immigrant groups. One reason is that differences in children’s cognitive abilities are immediately reflected in teaching difficulties. This reinforces residential segregation, as natives and successful immigrants tend to avoid schools with many low-performing immigrant students.IQ differences also contribute to wage gaps, which deepen residential segregation due to varying living costs across neighbourhoods. Disparities in living standards and the low average IQ of some immigrants make them vulnerable to higher crime rates, which further reinforce residential segregation, as natives and successful immigrants tend to avoid many immigrant neighbourhoods for safety reasons. The average IQs of these Nordic countries, which were previously around 100, are projected to decline to 90–94 by the end of the century due to demographic shifts. Additionally, the article discusses the political measures proposed to dismantle segregation and stop the demographic changes

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